ODM Without Raila: Party Faces Factional Tensions and Possible Exit Moves Ahead of 2027 Polls

ODM leaders including Saboti MP Caleb Amisi and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna feature among MPs linked to internal disagreements

Nairobi, Kenya — The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is at a critical political crossroads after the death of its long-time leader, Raila Odinga. As Kenya gears up for the 2027 general elections, internal divisions have surfaced within ODM, with some leaders reportedly contemplating exit strategies, while others reaffirm loyalty to the party and its evolving political direction.

🔎 Internal Frictions and Exit Plots

Several ODM lawmakers and grassroots leaders have expressed discomfort with the party’s ambiguous stance following its entry into the broad-based government under President William Ruto’s administration. Some critics argue that continued alignment with the Kenya Kwanza government dilutes ODM’s identity and undermines its traditional opposition role.

A faction within the party has openly hinted at possible exits or political realignment if ODM continues to operate in close cooperation with the ruling UDA party, especially with uncertainties emerging over the party’s strategy for 2027.

🧭 Leadership Dynamics After Raila

Dr Oburu Oginga, acting ODM leader, speaking at a cultural festival as party redefines its path post-Raila. With the passing of Raila Odinga, ODM’s leadership mantle has been assumed by Dr Oburu Oginga, who faces the task of balancing different interests within the party.

Some commentators describe his role as a “tough balancing act” as he attempts to maintain unity while responding to pressure from restive youth and grassroots activists calling for a clear political identity ahead of 2027. Senior party members and allies have sometimes publicly defended Oburu’s leadership against voices pushing for alternative leadership or strategy shifts, stressing the need for continuity and respect for Raila’s legacy.

🗳️ ODM’s Strategic Dilemma Ahead of 2027

1. Coalition with Kenya KwanzaODM’s continued collaboration with President William Ruto’s government remains a major point of contention. While some leaders view the arrangement as pragmatic and conducive to national stability, others argue it blurs the party’s distinct political identity and could cost it credibility with traditional supporters.

2. Reaffirming Commitment to Broad-Based GovernmentIn late 2025, ODM’s Central Committee officially announced it would stay within the broad-based government until the 2027 elections, attributing the decision to Raila Odinga’s own commitment to unity and dialogue. This was formally resolved in internal meetings chaired by Oburu Oginga.

3. Pressure from WithinSome MPs, including Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, have suggested that they might leave ODM or decline to seek re-election under its banner if the party maintains its current trajectory without clear opposition positioning.

🧠 What Analysts Say

Political analysts say that ODM must clarify its strategy early — whether to forge ahead as part of a governing coalition or reposition itself as a standalone opposition force with its own presidential candidate. Inaction or ambiguity could weaken the party’s base and erode its historical support in regions where it has traditionally been strong.

📊 Public Expectations and 2027 Dynamics

Polls and expert commentary suggest a significant share of Kenyans believe ODM could either support Ruto’s re-election bid or field its own candidate, depending on internal decisions made in the coming months. This highlights the need for early political clarity if the party hopes to maintain relevance and cohesion across Kenya’s diverse electorate.

📝 Key Takeaways

ODM is navigating post-Raila leadership challenges, with potential exits by some members if strategic direction remains unclear.

The party’s alignment with the broad-based government has divided opinion internally and among supporters.

With the 2027 elections approaching, ODM’s choices on coalition, candidate support, and party identity will significantly influence Kenya’s political dynamics.

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Naphtaly Obiero

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